Ol Kalou By-Election Poll findings released by Politrack Africa indicate that President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) could be headed for a significant defeat in the July 16 parliamentary by-election. According to the survey, DCP candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru commands 70.2% support, well ahead of UDA’s Samuel Muchina Nyagah at 23.1%.
According to the survey, Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru enjoys overwhelming support among voters in the Nyandarua County constituency, placing him significantly ahead of UDA candidate Samuel Muchina Nyagah.
DCP Candidate Takes Commanding Lead
The Politrack Africa poll found that Waweru commands the support of 70.2% of likely voters compared to 23.1% for Nyagah.
Jubilee Party candidate Wilson Kigwa attracted 2.4% support, while other candidates accounted for 2.8%. A further 2.3% of respondents said they remained undecided.
If current voter preferences remain unchanged, the survey projects that the DCP candidate could defeat his closest challenger by approximately 47 percentage points.
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How the Survey Was Conducted
The survey was conducted between July 1 and July 3, 2026, across all five wards of Ol Kalou Constituency.
Politrack Africa interviewed 3,018 registered voters aged 18 years and above through face-to-face interviews. The exercise utilized tablet-based data collection with GPS verification to ensure data integrity.
The survey carries a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
Party Popularity Mirrors Candidate Support
The survey also measured party support within the constituency.
When respondents were asked which political party they supported, 70% backed DCP, while 23.5% supported UDA.
Jubilee Party received 2.2% support, while 4% of respondents remained undecided. Other political parties collectively attracted 0.3% support.
More on politrack africa website
Confidence in IEBC Remains High
The poll further assessed public confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) ahead of the by-election.
According to the findings:
- 64% of respondents said they trust the IEBC to conduct a free and fair election.
- 21% expressed doubts about the commission.
- 15% said they were unsure.
Among those who expressed confidence in the electoral body:
- 48% cited the IEBC’s independent status.
- 42% pointed to increased transparency.
- 38% said the commission’s past performance inspired confidence.
The findings suggest that a majority of Ol Kalou voters believe the electoral process will be credible despite heightened political competition.
Gachagua Leads 2027 Presidential Preferences
The survey also explored early presidential preferences among voters in the constituency.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua emerged as the most preferred candidate with 31.4% support.
He was followed by:
- Fred Matiang’i – 19.9%
- Kalonzo Musyoka – 9.8%
- William Ruto – 6.5%
- Edwin Sifuna – 3.3%
- Martha Karua – 0.3%
- Other candidates – 0.8%
Meanwhile, 28% of respondents said they had not yet decided whom they would support in the 2027 presidential election.
Linda Mwananchi Rally Moved to Nyahururu
In a related development, the Linda Mwananchi faction announced the cancellation of its planned rally in Ol Kalou and relocated the event to Nyahururu.
The group alleged that there were plans to disrupt the by-election through acts of violence aimed at creating grounds for postponing the July 16 vote.
The announcement came shortly after Rigathi Gachagua cautioned the group against conducting campaigns in the constituency, arguing that local DCP leaders should be allowed to manage the by-election process.
With only days remaining before voters head to the ballot, the latest Ol Kalou By-Election Poll suggests that DCP candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru holds a substantial advantage over UDA’s Samuel Muchina Nyagah. The contest is increasingly being viewed as a political showdown between former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and President William Ruto, making the outcome one of the most closely watched electoral battles in the Mt Kenya region.
